We use probability everyday?

"Greek rhetoricians called any kind of statement that predicts something about human behavior a statement of probability. Probabilities are not as reliable as certainties, but they are more reliable than chance" (Crowley, p.160). This is how Sharon Crowely explains what probability is. Probability that rhetoricians use in writing is different from probabilities used in mathematical equations, for there is no way to calculate and quantify human behavior. I had never really thought about this before, but it makes perfect sense. We use rhetorical probabilities everyday. For example, a child who wants a puppy must evaluate the situation before he or she asks for one. In other words, what would he or she predict their parents reaction might be? In this case, this child would be gathering information to best predict what would happen if he or she did decide to ask for a puppy. In this way, I believe that probability in rhetoric has the ability to further an argument because in making a prediction about human behavior, one must look at all sides and angles of what might occur in the situation. In doing so, a person who has used probabilities will have already thought of rebuttals, in this scenario, of the reasons why he or she shouldn't get a puppy, and will be able to refute their argument on the spot. I am amazed I never looked at this process as being probability, as I limited the term only to math, but it is a procedure that involves predicting something less than absolute, but more than just chance. Another example would be the probability of what would happen if you turned your homework in late. Would there be consequences? In order to determine this, you would need to first draw from inside information about what you know: how lenient is the teacher? do you normally turn your homework in on time? etc. It is fascinating how often probability is used outside of math, which also raises the question: what is a definition? Is it limited to one defining factor? In this case, no, the word "probability" defines something slightly different in math than it does in rhetoric.